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Epidemics, Continued

I earlier ruminated on what might happen to traffic fatalities in the midst of the swine flu epidemic (and noted the vast gulf between the numbers of deaths from both causes).

An answer of sorts has come from Mexico City, from Eric Britton over at World Streets. Via the newspaper Reforma, we learn:

Apparently the swine flu in Mexico City caused few real deaths but many traffic deaths. The large drop in the volume of cars increased velocities and also increased traffic fatalities. There were 12 traffic fatalities in the 6 days before the government issued their swine flu alert and 75 traffic fatalities in the 6 days after.

Here is the kicker: the increase in traffic deaths (63) dwarfs the number of swine flu deaths (8) during those six days.

This is hardly scientific, and I’m dubious increased speeds would be the main reason — I’d guess instead higher exposure from people avoiding public transit — but it is certainly suggestive.

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This entry was posted on Thursday, May 28th, 2009 at 8:44 am and is filed under Cars, Cities, Risk. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

One Response to “Epidemics, Continued”

  1. Tom Bertulis Says:
    June 2nd, 2009 at 11:02 am

    Greetings Tom,

    I agree with you that increased speeds are not likely to be the “main reason,” as mentioned above. I cycle 12 miles per day on my daily bike commute to work in Mexico City so I was treated to a first-hand look at the Swine Flu scare unfolding. It strikes me that normally congestion in Mexico City causes intersections to be blocked by motor vehicles (morning, noon, and night) which reduces potential for fatal collisions. During the Swine Flu scare those intersections were open, resulting in more “Left Turn” and “Right Angle” collisions and therefore more fatalities.

    Just my observations.

    Kind regards,
    Tom Bertulis
    ITDP Mexico City

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Traffic Tom Vanderbilt

How We Drive is the companion blog to Tom Vanderbilt’s New York Times bestselling book, Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us), published by Alfred A. Knopf in the U.S. and Canada, Penguin in the U.K, and in languages other than English by a number of other fine publishers worldwide.

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